In summary: Venezuela will continue to melt down, will export a forecast 4 million refugees, and Brazil will need to build a border wall; and Saudi Arabia simply cannot afford the war in Yemen and the Vision 2030 nation plan. (Do I recall correctly that the war in Yemen is costing $100 million a day?)
Table: “Fiscal Breakeven Oil Price in US Dollars, 2018: Many Cartel Producers Risk Steep Budget Deficits After Oil-Price Crash”, in Wall Street Journal, November 28, 2018. p. A8.
(Many OPEC nations need much higher oil prices to balance their budgets.)
Venezuela: $216 bbl.
Nigeria: $127 bbl.
Libya: $114 bbl.
Bahrain: $111 bbl.
Saudi Arabia: $88 bbl.
Algeria: $84 bbl.
Angola: $83 bbl.
Oman: $77 bbl.
Iran: $72 bbl.
UAE: $72 bbl.
Kazakhstan: $62 bbl.
Present oil price: $60 bbl.
Azerbaijan: $59 bbl.
Iraq: $55 bbl.
Russia: $53 bbl.
Kuwait: $48 bbl.
Qatar: $47 bbl.
Sources: ERC Equipoise (Nigeria, Angola, Ecuador, Venezuela), Renaissance Capital (Russia), IMF (others).
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